* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 128 131 133 133 133 130 125 120 113 106 98 96 V (KT) LAND 125 128 131 133 133 133 130 125 120 113 106 98 96 V (KT) LGE mod 125 127 126 123 120 115 109 104 100 95 90 83 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 8 5 5 4 6 7 3 8 1 3 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 1 2 5 6 SHEAR DIR 63 51 118 92 141 77 276 87 152 156 102 311 286 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 153 150 151 151 148 145 140 134 124 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.4 -52.4 -51.2 -51.2 -50.4 -50.6 -49.9 -50.5 -48.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 9 9 12 11 11 11 9 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 60 59 53 51 51 43 40 33 35 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 16 18 20 24 25 26 26 26 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 6 14 13 35 38 44 54 63 78 88 93 200 MB DIV 18 64 71 54 53 76 11 4 -20 5 10 14 -25 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -5 0 0 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 6 LAND (KM) 185 211 221 245 276 340 426 546 566 583 601 579 508 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.8 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.9 103.7 104.5 105.3 106.9 108.3 109.9 111.5 112.9 113.9 114.5 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 38 33 32 15 8 10 29 12 9 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -21. -29. -35. -42. -48. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 19. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 0. -5. -12. -19. -27. -29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##