* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 45 44 42 42 41 42 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 45 44 42 42 41 42 41 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 46 45 44 42 40 39 38 38 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 27 27 23 20 29 23 30 23 19 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 4 0 -3 0 -1 -1 6 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 224 239 242 246 237 241 249 238 253 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 143 144 146 144 141 140 141 144 145 143 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 139 138 139 137 132 128 126 128 128 125 115 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 52 55 55 51 48 50 50 52 56 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 13 15 13 14 12 10 10 10 13 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 55 37 35 28 1 -4 -14 -22 -17 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 72 63 84 66 26 32 25 35 37 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 10 13 11 12 1 2 2 5 2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 986 913 861 844 845 634 455 387 397 478 565 656 808 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.8 20.1 21.1 21.9 22.8 23.9 25.1 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.5 55.7 56.7 57.7 59.7 61.8 63.5 64.8 65.8 66.8 67.3 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 63 63 61 63 65 61 50 56 56 58 50 42 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)