* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 09/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 63 71 74 75 74 76 78 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 63 71 74 75 74 76 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 48 61 76 87 87 81 75 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 8 7 4 4 2 4 4 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -1 0 -1 0 4 -1 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 59 69 66 84 63 117 307 235 229 213 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 135 134 134 135 140 141 136 132 128 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 139 136 135 135 139 139 131 126 121 120 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.9 -53.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 73 70 71 72 70 69 70 72 69 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 28 32 33 34 23 6 -12 -27 -40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -2 -4 -16 0 26 33 9 37 49 34 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 627 762 905 1039 1174 1416 1619 1731 1767 1830 1855 1811 1790 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.3 13.2 14.1 14.9 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.4 24.8 26.1 27.4 29.8 31.9 33.8 35.3 36.5 37.7 38.9 40.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 19 15 10 18 19 17 15 10 11 13 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 9. 6. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 27. 38. 46. 49. 50. 49. 51. 53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 09/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 09/23/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED