* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 124 125 126 123 120 119 113 104 101 96 92 V (KT) LAND 125 124 124 125 126 123 120 119 113 104 101 96 92 V (KT) LGE mod 125 123 120 116 113 107 101 97 93 88 83 77 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 2 3 3 4 6 6 10 1 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 5 -1 -1 -5 -3 1 -5 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 89 88 246 168 286 75 140 189 143 1 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 152 152 151 149 147 144 137 129 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 9 10 11 11 11 9 8 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 59 58 51 51 46 49 43 43 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 16 18 19 20 24 25 25 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 2 12 16 27 41 38 48 53 60 73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 58 49 65 71 7 48 6 -13 -2 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -4 0 0 -6 -2 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 200 208 243 273 304 378 487 558 554 567 583 547 422 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.4 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.5 104.3 105.2 106.1 107.8 109.3 110.5 111.8 113.1 114.2 114.7 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 34 32 30 8 9 16 28 10 8 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -21. -29. -35. -42. -48. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 17. 18. 18. 20. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. -2. -5. -6. -12. -21. -24. -29. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/23/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##