* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/24/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 49 48 50 49 49 45 46 45 44 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 49 48 50 49 49 45 46 45 44 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 47 47 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 23 20 22 25 22 29 28 34 34 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 0 -3 0 -3 2 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 235 247 248 243 236 243 242 247 243 275 273 286 267 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 145 146 146 144 141 140 143 144 141 135 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 141 141 139 135 130 128 128 127 124 117 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 58 54 57 55 54 52 51 49 50 49 54 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 13 14 14 11 13 13 14 12 15 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 47 26 28 27 15 -6 -2 -18 -12 -16 11 0 1 200 MB DIV 42 57 83 61 55 35 41 45 27 33 15 12 -23 700-850 TADV 12 16 16 15 7 5 1 5 3 5 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 926 863 822 817 761 562 427 374 413 522 640 743 846 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.9 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.7 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.2 56.4 57.5 58.5 60.4 62.1 63.7 65.0 65.8 66.3 66.7 67.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 7 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 62 61 63 66 69 61 52 57 56 53 40 33 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -2. -2. -1. -4. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. 1. 0. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)