* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 09/24/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 68 73 74 74 70 65 63 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 68 73 74 74 70 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 35 39 44 50 62 77 89 92 86 79 72 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 9 9 6 3 5 7 10 13 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 -2 -3 -4 0 0 -1 0 2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 59 55 62 75 71 95 80 256 222 207 217 241 253 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 134 133 137 139 138 132 127 126 125 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 136 135 134 137 137 134 127 120 119 117 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 69 70 66 65 69 69 68 65 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 26 23 26 18 8 -11 -30 -38 -51 -63 -71 200 MB DIV -15 -8 -18 -7 3 22 20 19 31 28 30 -16 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 0 1 -3 -1 -4 -3 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 749 885 1024 1155 1280 1504 1687 1788 1859 1927 1904 1884 1929 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.3 14.4 15.5 16.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.7 26.0 27.3 28.5 30.8 32.7 34.4 35.8 37.1 38.3 39.7 40.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 15 10 13 19 17 16 11 9 10 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 19. 29. 38. 43. 44. 44. 40. 35. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 09/24/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 09/24/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED