* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/24/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 124 123 122 121 119 117 109 101 97 88 83 V (KT) LAND 125 124 124 123 122 121 119 117 109 101 97 88 83 V (KT) LGE mod 125 122 119 115 111 105 99 95 91 85 78 72 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 1 7 6 3 11 6 10 9 4 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 10 0 -3 0 -5 2 -2 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 98 95 200 203 194 206 107 133 143 168 213 284 278 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 152 152 150 148 143 136 132 123 110 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -50.7 -50.9 -49.9 -50.2 -48.8 -48.8 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 10 12 11 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 58 52 52 50 44 39 39 38 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 17 19 19 21 23 26 25 25 26 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 4 10 18 29 40 44 47 51 66 74 79 85 77 200 MB DIV 42 55 82 47 21 15 6 -18 2 5 60 -16 -14 700-850 TADV -2 -7 0 1 -2 -8 -3 -1 2 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 177 216 268 295 336 457 591 590 637 667 657 597 519 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.5 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.5 105.4 106.3 107.2 108.8 110.5 112.2 113.8 114.8 115.2 115.8 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 34 33 31 15 9 24 27 10 8 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -22. -29. -36. -44. -50. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 15. 15. 17. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -16. -24. -28. -37. -42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/24/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/24/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##