* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/24/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 43 41 40 40 37 37 35 35 34 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 43 41 40 40 37 37 35 35 34 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 43 41 40 40 41 42 43 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 24 21 23 27 21 22 18 22 22 30 26 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 2 -1 -4 -5 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 241 247 243 231 239 238 250 247 252 263 284 272 269 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 144 142 140 138 138 138 136 132 129 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 138 137 133 128 125 124 122 119 114 112 108 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 54 57 52 50 50 47 49 48 49 51 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 14 1 -16 -25 -44 -52 -57 -52 -49 -42 -40 200 MB DIV 31 54 57 47 23 18 13 20 4 28 9 11 9 700-850 TADV 10 12 11 2 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 929 907 901 859 762 630 543 504 534 613 719 818 919 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.0 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.7 23.7 24.7 25.7 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.7 56.6 57.6 58.5 60.0 61.3 62.5 63.5 64.0 64.0 64.3 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 62 61 58 58 61 54 41 45 50 42 27 19 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)