* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 09/24/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 58 65 69 71 69 65 61 59 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 58 65 69 71 69 65 61 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 46 58 71 79 79 74 69 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 5 4 0 3 9 14 13 15 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -3 0 2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 40 47 74 59 72 200 231 201 208 212 230 242 256 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 135 136 140 138 132 127 125 125 125 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 135 137 137 138 135 127 121 117 118 115 115 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 70 67 68 65 66 66 66 69 62 62 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 18 21 22 25 23 12 1 -21 -34 -51 -67 -68 -69 200 MB DIV -20 -23 -11 -1 1 21 23 47 25 9 1 -5 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 859 999 1136 1262 1390 1616 1791 1902 1966 1927 1899 1909 1944 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.6 14.6 15.7 16.7 18.0 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 24.5 25.9 27.2 28.5 29.8 32.1 33.9 35.4 36.8 38.2 39.6 41.1 42.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 10 12 17 16 16 11 9 10 12 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 28. 35. 39. 41. 39. 35. 31. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 09/24/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 09/24/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)