* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/24/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 118 117 116 117 116 110 107 101 90 85 73 V (KT) LAND 120 118 118 117 116 117 116 110 107 101 90 85 73 V (KT) LGE mod 120 117 113 111 108 104 99 95 90 84 75 66 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 7 6 9 3 2 7 12 10 8 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 0 -1 -1 5 4 -1 4 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 183 93 246 252 308 272 183 70 154 157 208 255 262 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.0 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 153 153 151 147 145 141 135 122 112 112 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.1 -49.6 -49.3 -49.2 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 52 49 49 39 40 41 40 38 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 20 19 20 22 23 22 25 26 23 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 33 38 39 42 46 61 64 83 90 95 78 200 MB DIV 38 76 68 -24 -22 13 -13 -6 5 40 9 1 -7 700-850 TADV -4 0 -2 0 -7 -1 -2 0 0 -1 0 4 7 LAND (KM) 200 243 276 336 403 530 551 604 670 685 616 572 541 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.4 19.1 20.5 21.2 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.7 106.6 107.5 108.4 110.0 111.7 113.1 114.3 115.2 116.1 116.3 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 31 12 10 10 28 11 10 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26. -33. -40. -46. -52. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 12. 12. 15. 17. 13. 15. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -10. -13. -19. -30. -35. -47. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/24/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/24/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##