* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 42 42 38 38 36 34 30 30 27 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 42 42 38 38 36 34 30 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 27 27 24 23 26 28 30 35 37 36 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -5 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 253 243 237 244 235 229 250 233 246 261 276 273 281 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 142 141 139 138 137 136 133 129 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 134 132 130 126 123 120 118 117 112 109 107 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 49 48 50 49 50 50 49 46 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 -1 -17 -27 -29 -45 -40 -45 -35 -36 -16 -33 200 MB DIV 33 41 32 20 14 16 7 25 10 8 21 6 19 700-850 TADV 5 4 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -5 -1 -3 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 944 946 865 786 715 592 525 528 598 686 784 893 994 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.8 21.5 22.2 23.1 24.1 25.2 26.2 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 55.6 56.6 57.5 58.3 59.1 60.7 62.0 62.8 63.0 63.2 63.6 63.5 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 57 56 56 58 58 44 42 47 46 31 22 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -7. -7. -9. -11. -15. -15. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)