* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172011 09/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 48 54 56 59 59 58 54 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 48 54 56 59 59 58 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 45 50 52 52 51 50 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 3 3 10 14 13 14 14 14 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 2 -1 0 -1 0 1 3 8 2 SHEAR DIR 6 7 7 340 256 256 245 243 252 245 263 223 242 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 135 136 137 137 132 127 123 122 121 122 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 134 135 136 133 126 120 114 112 111 111 111 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 61 61 62 61 65 60 58 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 10 12 12 14 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 24 20 11 4 -14 -35 -50 -60 -69 -62 -56 200 MB DIV -23 -14 3 10 24 47 44 64 40 46 39 46 19 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 9 11 13 5 LAND (KM) 1013 1120 1221 1315 1412 1607 1744 1867 1988 2102 2153 2168 2195 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.2 13.1 14.2 15.3 16.5 17.5 18.3 19.3 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 26.0 27.1 28.2 29.3 30.3 32.3 33.7 34.9 36.0 37.0 37.9 38.9 40.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 11 15 15 13 12 9 9 11 10 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 24. 26. 29. 29. 28. 24. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 SEVENTEEN 09/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 SEVENTEEN 09/24/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)