* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 09/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 37 41 41 37 33 30 25 22 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 25 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 13 21 35 53 53 52 34 23 14 20 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 1 0 1 4 -6 -10 -8 -5 19 10 0 SHEAR DIR 263 244 241 221 202 202 217 255 259 233 148 107 147 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 25.8 22.3 19.2 16.2 14.1 11.7 9.1 8.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 146 143 115 91 78 71 69 67 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 131 130 127 102 81 71 67 66 65 63 61 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -55.8 -56.5 -56.6 -55.9 -54.9 -51.5 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 5 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 65 58 53 55 55 58 51 46 53 68 86 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -15 -18 -45 -43 -31 -13 -22 -48 -58 11 172 215 200 MB DIV 27 41 47 52 56 80 67 26 12 21 12 64 49 700-850 TADV 5 4 2 6 12 23 22 41 40 23 -59 -42 -8 LAND (KM) 205 214 221 213 64 -196 -163 -264 -349 -454 -532 -766 -807 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.6 29.6 31.1 32.6 36.2 39.9 42.9 45.3 48.1 51.3 54.4 56.2 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.4 78.7 78.9 79.0 78.4 76.8 74.8 73.9 74.1 74.9 75.7 76.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 15 17 19 18 14 13 15 16 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 42 43 54 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 8. -1. -9. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 21. 21. 17. 13. 10. 5. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 09/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 09/24/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 09/24/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)