* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 117 114 112 115 114 105 106 98 93 84 78 V (KT) LAND 120 118 117 114 112 115 114 105 106 98 93 84 78 V (KT) LGE mod 120 117 114 111 109 105 102 98 92 85 79 71 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 1 5 7 1 8 7 11 5 3 4 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 -3 -1 2 -4 5 0 2 7 6 11 11 SHEAR DIR 70 340 199 249 358 117 101 135 99 85 338 245 256 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 152 152 150 147 145 140 134 129 122 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.1 -50.6 -49.2 -49.6 -48.9 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 12 11 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 48 49 44 38 38 33 32 34 38 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 19 20 18 16 20 23 20 25 24 24 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 16 34 42 39 43 50 53 70 77 102 99 86 63 200 MB DIV 60 83 -29 -33 17 35 0 16 -5 17 -40 -7 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -3 -6 0 -2 1 -1 0 2 6 10 LAND (KM) 294 319 359 422 489 605 615 661 722 745 695 603 497 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.7 19.5 20.5 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.7 107.4 108.3 109.1 110.8 112.3 113.6 114.8 115.6 115.9 115.9 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 24 10 8 10 28 28 12 16 8 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -20. -27. -34. -41. -47. -52. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 4. 8. 6. 12. 10. 11. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -8. -5. -6. -15. -14. -22. -27. -36. -42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/24/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##