* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/24/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 44 42 42 40 38 36 34 32 31 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 44 42 42 40 38 36 34 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 43 41 41 41 40 39 38 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 27 26 22 26 21 26 26 32 34 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -5 -6 -3 -5 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 237 232 232 242 249 250 251 245 253 277 276 278 271 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 142 140 138 137 138 136 133 129 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 135 133 129 124 122 122 119 116 111 109 107 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 49 51 50 49 51 51 53 53 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 9 10 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 16 2 -17 -23 -23 -42 -48 -49 -49 -44 -30 -42 -52 200 MB DIV 65 44 28 12 18 2 24 19 16 12 26 10 13 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 2 1 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 879 833 750 662 584 496 464 504 584 680 781 887 1001 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.7 21.3 22.2 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.2 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.8 58.6 59.5 60.4 61.7 62.6 63.2 63.7 63.9 63.7 63.7 63.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 9 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 61 61 58 54 44 47 50 46 32 23 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/24/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)