* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172011 09/24/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 53 61 64 66 65 61 60 58 57 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 53 61 64 66 65 61 60 58 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 47 52 61 67 66 63 59 56 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 2 5 9 15 15 16 12 13 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 0 2 2 7 1 SHEAR DIR 32 14 8 48 256 270 242 238 240 234 230 198 231 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 138 138 135 129 125 123 122 121 121 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 135 137 136 130 123 117 114 112 110 110 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 58 59 58 63 66 64 62 56 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 8 11 10 11 11 9 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 33 35 27 16 8 -5 -35 -45 -54 -60 -65 -54 -44 200 MB DIV -8 12 16 31 40 31 22 30 39 16 23 30 32 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 5 2 8 4 1 LAND (KM) 1152 1257 1366 1459 1554 1707 1848 1964 2075 2120 2123 2163 2245 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.6 14.6 15.7 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.7 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 27.4 28.6 29.7 30.7 31.7 33.3 34.7 35.8 36.8 37.8 38.8 39.5 39.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 16 15 13 13 10 9 9 11 11 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -2. -1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 18. 26. 29. 31. 30. 26. 25. 23. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 SEVENTEEN 09/24/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 SEVENTEEN 09/24/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)