* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 09/24/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 36 39 37 31 24 22 20 20 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 27 29 29 32 28 29 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 29 33 32 29 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 18 22 34 46 53 42 38 37 29 23 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 -1 5 8 0 -7 -8 -1 -3 -7 5 3 SHEAR DIR 302 251 249 207 201 209 233 267 275 279 267 225 239 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 24.3 21.4 18.9 15.7 14.0 13.7 12.1 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 145 140 103 86 76 69 67 68 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 131 129 124 92 77 69 65 64 65 66 66 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.5 -55.5 -56.5 -56.6 -57.1 -57.3 -56.7 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 6 8 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 61 53 50 49 51 53 51 50 54 55 66 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -42 -41 -36 -38 -33 -69 -105 -107 -95 -62 -5 200 MB DIV 46 51 45 64 70 68 49 5 10 5 18 30 37 700-850 TADV 3 2 6 6 11 9 30 27 22 33 39 -25 0 LAND (KM) 238 243 270 152 29 -99 -58 -116 3 3 -119 19 -139 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 29.1 30.3 32.0 33.6 37.3 40.6 42.4 43.6 44.4 46.3 49.2 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 78.2 78.5 78.5 78.4 77.0 74.7 72.3 70.1 68.1 66.4 63.5 59.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 16 18 19 15 11 9 9 14 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 37 44 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 9. 0. -8. -14. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 17. 11. 4. 2. 0. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 09/24/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 09/24/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 09/24/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)