* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/25/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 36 35 36 36 36 35 35 33 33 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 36 35 36 36 36 35 35 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 34 33 34 34 35 35 36 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 31 27 19 21 21 20 18 22 27 36 39 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 226 227 238 255 248 254 234 271 274 297 278 282 283 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 142 140 140 139 138 136 135 133 129 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 131 130 128 126 123 121 118 117 115 112 109 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 55 51 48 51 49 48 50 53 58 60 63 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -9 -17 -12 -21 -42 -42 -49 -38 -38 -23 -22 -25 200 MB DIV 44 37 17 19 22 19 29 11 6 8 0 13 6 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 1 -2 0 -2 0 -3 0 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 813 722 636 571 514 459 453 495 554 622 712 844 1024 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.2 23.9 24.8 26.0 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.9 59.7 60.4 61.1 62.2 63.3 63.9 64.2 64.4 64.7 64.7 64.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 65 63 60 55 51 47 52 54 50 38 28 18 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)