* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/25/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 49 53 53 54 51 48 44 42 43 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 49 53 53 54 51 48 44 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 54 56 54 50 47 44 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 2 4 15 19 22 19 17 18 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 0 0 1 4 5 11 SHEAR DIR 13 344 18 295 287 263 247 240 246 238 224 248 251 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 138 137 131 126 122 122 121 121 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 135 135 133 127 118 112 112 112 110 106 104 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 56 58 60 58 64 62 59 55 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 11 12 10 12 10 10 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 41 31 19 13 9 -19 -40 -45 -54 -64 -59 -59 -62 200 MB DIV 14 19 38 55 42 17 14 32 25 3 12 6 19 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 4 10 17 8 10 LAND (KM) 1228 1336 1447 1525 1607 1764 1932 2019 2091 2178 2272 2288 2222 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.1 14.3 15.5 16.4 17.4 18.7 20.5 21.7 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.5 30.6 31.5 32.3 33.9 35.5 36.3 36.9 37.7 38.9 39.1 38.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 6 7 9 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 15 13 13 12 8 9 10 10 11 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 18. 19. 16. 13. 9. 7. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/25/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/25/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)