* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/25/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 112 112 113 113 110 101 96 86 77 67 60 V (KT) LAND 115 113 112 112 113 113 110 101 96 86 77 67 60 V (KT) LGE mod 115 112 109 108 106 103 100 95 88 80 71 62 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 6 4 4 2 12 9 7 7 16 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 2 -1 -3 2 -1 2 0 1 2 8 2 SHEAR DIR 331 269 332 257 86 48 125 153 160 219 236 261 242 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.9 26.4 25.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 152 151 150 149 146 141 134 130 126 116 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -49.6 -50.6 -49.6 -50.0 -49.5 -49.9 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 51 48 47 47 45 42 40 43 46 45 49 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 25 26 24 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 39 46 48 51 46 51 69 67 75 67 59 51 46 200 MB DIV 2 -3 30 9 -24 -2 12 -28 3 15 -5 -9 -8 700-850 TADV -5 -12 -9 -7 -2 0 6 2 -1 0 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 359 416 476 546 617 666 734 776 799 750 654 542 463 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.1 20.0 21.3 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.8 109.7 110.5 112.3 113.9 115.1 116.0 116.2 116.0 116.0 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 7 9 10 11 29 13 26 8 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -24. -31. -38. -44. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 6. 7. 4. 3. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -5. -14. -19. -29. -38. -48. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/25/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/25/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##