* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/25/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 36 36 34 35 33 32 33 36 35 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 36 36 34 35 33 32 33 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 37 37 36 35 35 36 37 37 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 22 21 23 18 18 18 27 24 27 23 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -3 -5 -5 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 236 244 258 254 256 234 256 269 298 294 282 281 277 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 140 139 139 140 140 138 135 132 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 131 130 127 125 123 124 122 119 117 115 109 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 48 49 47 45 46 49 53 53 55 53 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -18 -13 -21 -35 -43 -52 -47 -47 -39 -34 -19 -32 200 MB DIV 19 26 19 31 2 33 6 0 6 16 2 14 18 700-850 TADV 6 4 4 0 0 2 -3 0 -3 1 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 727 644 564 503 450 396 404 450 532 615 681 790 893 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.2 24.0 24.6 25.6 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.6 60.4 61.1 61.8 62.9 63.8 64.5 65.0 65.3 65.3 65.6 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 65 61 59 54 51 53 55 57 50 37 32 28 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)