* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/25/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 53 55 56 55 53 48 45 42 41 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 53 55 56 55 53 48 45 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 53 57 57 54 50 47 44 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 5 5 10 15 24 19 22 25 24 25 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 360 353 300 311 280 260 260 240 268 255 267 268 261 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 137 134 128 125 122 121 120 119 118 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 136 133 129 122 117 112 111 109 108 104 103 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.5 -54.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 53 55 57 56 57 53 54 51 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 12 12 11 12 12 12 10 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 34 23 15 10 -1 -31 -42 -44 -62 -62 -77 -65 -71 200 MB DIV 22 32 46 28 16 8 3 25 9 3 11 26 -4 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -5 -4 -3 1 4 9 11 14 9 13 LAND (KM) 1315 1414 1516 1604 1694 1836 1944 2051 2124 2153 2173 2168 2143 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.9 16.3 17.6 18.8 20.3 22.1 23.6 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.4 31.4 32.3 33.2 34.6 35.6 36.5 37.2 37.7 38.0 38.0 37.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 13 13 13 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. 8. 5. 2. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/25/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/25/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)