* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/25/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 32 33 33 36 36 37 38 42 43 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 32 33 33 36 36 37 38 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 31 31 31 32 34 36 38 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 18 16 18 15 18 14 19 26 22 30 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 245 262 258 263 264 243 287 297 314 289 287 263 276 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 141 141 141 140 142 143 144 139 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 130 127 128 127 124 125 127 126 121 116 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 51 53 50 47 47 51 50 55 55 58 52 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -17 -34 -43 -42 -54 -43 -55 -36 -30 -9 -14 200 MB DIV 34 33 13 0 14 29 11 3 5 0 13 12 31 700-850 TADV 5 5 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 601 533 469 426 389 328 338 373 466 577 689 762 817 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.7 23.8 25.1 26.1 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.7 61.3 61.8 62.3 63.6 64.5 65.3 65.9 66.4 66.6 67.2 67.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 66 63 59 56 55 57 56 57 59 48 38 25 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)