* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/25/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 55 58 57 57 51 48 44 43 47 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 55 58 57 57 51 48 44 43 47 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 50 53 56 57 54 50 47 45 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 3 8 13 18 21 24 21 26 24 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 2 1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 12 312 325 289 265 255 249 239 245 249 262 245 229 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 134 131 127 123 122 121 121 120 118 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 133 129 125 119 115 112 111 111 108 103 100 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 59 59 54 59 56 51 51 53 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 12 10 10 8 8 13 850 MB ENV VOR 25 18 18 6 -9 -33 -34 -39 -50 -49 -56 -42 -22 200 MB DIV 35 46 27 37 32 20 38 15 -5 15 19 44 5 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 1 7 11 22 16 13 3 LAND (KM) 1399 1488 1581 1660 1742 1867 1970 2087 2171 2200 2188 2203 2208 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.5 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.8 23.2 24.6 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 30.2 31.2 32.1 32.9 33.7 34.9 35.8 36.8 37.7 38.2 38.2 38.3 38.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 10 10 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 13 13 12 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 17. 17. 11. 8. 4. 3. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/25/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/25/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)