* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/25/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 104 103 104 99 102 96 92 85 75 60 55 V (KT) LAND 110 107 104 103 104 99 102 96 92 85 75 60 55 V (KT) LGE mod 110 107 105 104 103 103 101 96 89 79 66 52 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 1 9 8 4 9 6 5 0 7 13 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -5 -8 -1 -2 7 5 17 15 19 16 3 SHEAR DIR 295 133 92 80 358 128 78 55 187 278 259 240 251 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.3 25.7 24.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 149 149 146 142 138 132 125 119 109 98 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -50.4 -49.8 -50.3 -49.1 -49.8 -49.1 -49.5 -49.0 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 50 47 49 45 48 47 46 47 48 46 48 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 27 27 26 28 24 29 27 27 26 24 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 54 50 49 69 79 79 83 73 59 44 28 200 MB DIV 23 -30 -48 -18 -2 38 13 25 9 -1 1 39 19 700-850 TADV -15 -9 -2 -2 -3 1 -1 -1 0 4 6 5 0 LAND (KM) 469 539 608 646 670 728 801 836 789 676 508 377 323 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.9 18.8 19.9 21.3 22.8 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.6 110.4 111.3 112.1 113.8 115.1 116.0 116.4 116.2 115.5 115.3 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 25 29 13 28 10 5 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -22. -29. -35. -41. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. 6. 3. 3. 2. 0. -5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -6. -11. -8. -14. -18. -25. -35. -50. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/25/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/25/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##