* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/25/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 26 25 27 30 34 38 39 42 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 26 25 27 30 34 38 39 42 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 16 16 15 19 17 23 21 28 21 35 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 2 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 256 271 261 242 232 253 279 286 287 267 277 257 255 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 143 141 141 141 141 143 143 142 138 131 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 131 130 129 126 125 126 126 124 120 113 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 53 50 49 51 56 59 58 61 59 61 62 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 7 7 6 7 8 11 11 11 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -14 -27 -35 -32 -37 -33 -33 -23 -20 -5 -16 0 200 MB DIV 37 28 19 33 46 23 29 21 21 17 33 27 71 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 1 2 -1 4 0 4 1 2 6 14 LAND (KM) 538 471 407 356 323 314 359 425 522 619 709 825 962 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.2 24.3 25.5 26.7 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.3 61.9 62.6 63.2 64.4 65.0 65.5 66.0 66.5 67.0 67.2 67.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 6 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 64 62 59 56 59 59 57 58 54 40 38 22 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 4. 8. 9. 12. 15. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/25/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)