* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/25/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 54 55 54 52 47 41 39 37 36 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 54 55 54 52 47 41 39 37 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 52 54 55 54 50 46 43 40 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 11 14 17 21 21 23 22 33 26 38 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 0 -3 0 0 1 0 0 1 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 316 313 294 269 259 260 251 258 250 267 281 267 257 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 134 131 128 124 122 121 120 120 120 120 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 129 125 122 116 113 111 109 109 108 106 109 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 60 61 58 57 55 54 50 52 54 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 10 9 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 3 -10 -19 -25 -28 -48 -61 -74 -77 -65 -39 200 MB DIV 41 25 27 19 20 13 23 7 -12 6 16 10 1 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 2 9 15 20 13 12 -2 LAND (KM) 1503 1586 1671 1742 1814 1933 2048 2137 2187 2226 2229 2238 2251 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.0 16.2 17.4 18.7 20.1 21.7 23.5 25.2 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.3 32.2 33.0 33.7 34.4 35.5 36.5 37.3 38.0 38.5 38.6 38.6 38.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 11 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 2. -4. -6. -8. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/25/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/25/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)