* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/25/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 100 98 96 88 92 87 82 75 71 57 49 V (KT) LAND 110 105 100 98 96 88 92 87 82 75 71 57 49 V (KT) LGE mod 110 107 105 104 103 102 99 93 84 73 60 47 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 9 4 8 7 3 1 9 18 26 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 -3 -5 0 0 8 12 13 12 18 13 -1 SHEAR DIR 234 105 148 92 101 105 83 170 4 260 243 239 245 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 149 147 144 138 132 127 121 114 103 91 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -50.4 -50.3 -50.6 -49.5 -49.6 -49.5 -49.8 -49.5 -48.9 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 48 45 40 44 38 39 42 44 42 39 42 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 26 29 28 24 29 27 25 23 25 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 41 51 58 75 89 99 99 86 75 45 54 200 MB DIV -17 -56 -49 2 9 3 33 11 4 19 28 33 19 700-850 TADV -16 -7 -1 -1 0 0 -4 4 2 7 11 1 3 LAND (KM) 571 633 650 670 701 774 813 793 697 586 450 355 276 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.7 22.0 23.5 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.4 112.3 113.1 114.7 115.8 116.3 116.1 115.9 115.5 115.5 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 28 30 29 12 20 15 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -31. -37. -44. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -3. 3. 0. -1. -5. -2. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -7. -4. -1. 4. 7. 8. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -12. -14. -22. -18. -23. -28. -35. -39. -53. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/25/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/25/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##