* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/26/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 23 23 25 28 30 32 33 36 39 40 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 23 23 25 28 30 32 33 36 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 22 19 17 22 27 29 21 31 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -5 2 0 -3 -2 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 269 258 256 258 293 303 309 283 288 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 143 143 144 148 147 149 150 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 131 131 131 132 134 132 132 133 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 48 49 52 54 55 60 63 63 63 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -25 -31 -27 -26 -37 -27 -35 -16 -15 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 33 30 30 38 8 18 18 15 22 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 3 -1 0 0 2 4 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 464 394 328 263 213 191 277 289 370 494 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.2 21.0 21.9 23.0 24.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.0 62.7 63.5 64.2 65.7 67.1 68.4 69.4 70.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 60 60 59 57 55 66 70 65 65 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/26/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/26/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/26/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)