* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/26/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 56 55 53 52 48 44 42 42 43 41 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 56 55 53 52 48 44 42 42 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 56 58 58 57 54 50 47 45 45 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 15 17 20 20 21 20 22 16 17 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -3 -1 1 2 2 1 5 2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 298 281 268 267 264 247 258 268 256 272 243 216 221 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 130 127 126 123 121 121 120 120 120 120 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 123 120 118 114 112 111 108 107 106 106 106 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 56 59 60 59 57 58 55 53 52 54 54 54 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 10 11 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 17 7 -8 -18 -22 -19 -31 -48 -54 -57 -49 -46 -42 200 MB DIV 23 22 10 16 18 22 12 1 12 17 7 34 5 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -3 -2 1 2 12 16 10 9 1 2 LAND (KM) 1576 1662 1750 1825 1900 2013 2134 2203 2271 2306 2311 2314 2316 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 17.0 18.3 19.7 21.0 22.2 23.4 24.7 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 32.1 33.0 33.8 34.5 35.2 36.2 37.2 38.1 38.9 39.3 39.4 39.4 39.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. -2. -6. -8. -8. -7. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/26/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/26/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)