* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/26/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 104 102 101 97 90 84 81 73 65 54 42 V (KT) LAND 110 106 104 102 101 97 90 84 81 73 65 54 42 V (KT) LGE mod 110 109 107 105 104 100 94 86 77 65 53 41 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 5 0 8 5 6 8 8 22 25 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 2 7 8 9 10 13 20 11 5 0 SHEAR DIR 106 167 114 33 185 60 118 204 190 214 236 265 278 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.3 25.5 24.7 23.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 149 146 141 136 131 125 117 109 98 87 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -49.7 -50.0 -49.5 -49.8 -48.8 -49.5 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 45 40 45 42 44 44 49 47 47 47 45 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 28 28 29 30 26 26 27 26 26 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR 52 43 44 59 57 74 68 66 79 72 58 32 38 200 MB DIV -38 -40 -7 11 -17 -7 17 -1 39 35 34 10 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 -2 3 -2 0 2 3 8 10 0 1 LAND (KM) 671 688 712 738 773 815 813 769 676 565 430 368 282 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.1 22.5 23.9 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.3 114.1 115.3 115.9 116.2 116.2 116.1 115.7 115.8 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 7 5 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 29 13 14 27 12 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -10. -17. -25. -32. -39. -45. -51. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 0. -1. 2. -1. 0. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -13. -20. -26. -29. -37. -45. -56. -68. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/26/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/26/11 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##