* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/26/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 50 50 49 45 43 41 39 40 39 41 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 50 50 49 45 43 41 39 40 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 51 51 50 47 45 42 41 40 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 19 19 23 21 20 19 17 17 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 0 0 1 0 0 5 4 7 4 2 SHEAR DIR 295 270 266 266 257 252 255 236 241 250 248 218 258 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 127 125 124 122 122 122 122 123 120 120 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 119 116 115 112 113 112 111 110 106 104 104 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 58 59 58 56 58 55 52 50 51 52 55 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 14 11 11 11 10 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -12 -21 -27 -28 -26 -37 -43 -51 -52 -54 -61 -56 200 MB DIV 29 18 20 23 24 37 5 -6 10 7 7 12 4 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 -2 -1 2 2 11 10 11 15 5 12 LAND (KM) 1678 1745 1814 1868 1924 2037 2167 2168 2211 2321 2342 2345 2409 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.3 20.6 22.1 23.7 24.7 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 33.1 33.8 34.4 34.9 35.4 36.4 37.6 38.9 39.9 40.2 39.7 39.7 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 8 8 10 10 11 13 13 11 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -11. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/26/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/26/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)