* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/26/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 102 100 98 97 91 89 81 71 57 48 36 V (KT) LAND 105 103 102 100 98 97 91 89 81 71 57 48 36 V (KT) LGE mod 105 103 101 99 98 95 91 86 78 66 52 41 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 1 6 6 6 1 9 16 19 29 23 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 7 4 6 5 6 4 7 12 5 0 5 SHEAR DIR 116 134 74 114 77 67 67 142 220 219 237 256 294 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.2 25.3 24.1 23.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 145 141 136 132 124 115 103 92 83 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 -50.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -49.8 -49.5 -49.8 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 41 43 44 48 45 48 47 54 47 46 45 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 27 27 26 27 24 26 26 25 23 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 53 42 48 59 65 69 64 64 48 44 11 200 MB DIV -26 -2 -9 -54 -24 34 12 27 30 37 12 -9 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 -2 0 0 -1 5 10 10 5 -4 LAND (KM) 700 726 760 786 819 869 875 789 636 504 411 345 240 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.8 18.8 20.2 21.6 23.1 24.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.5 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.7 116.4 116.4 116.0 115.8 115.9 116.2 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 6 7 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 16 18 21 22 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -28. -35. -41. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -14. -16. -24. -34. -48. -57. -69. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/26/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/26/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##