* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/26/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 52 51 47 45 41 43 43 42 42 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 52 51 47 45 41 43 43 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 51 51 50 48 46 45 45 46 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 18 18 22 19 19 18 12 13 20 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 1 0 0 2 8 6 8 1 0 SHEAR DIR 278 276 264 256 252 247 249 234 224 264 265 258 260 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 124 123 123 122 121 121 121 122 120 121 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 117 115 113 114 113 112 110 109 108 105 104 104 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.8 -55.1 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 58 58 54 52 48 49 47 47 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 14 12 12 9 12 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -18 -19 -21 -24 -21 -38 -43 -33 -31 -35 -42 -44 200 MB DIV 36 36 38 38 23 14 8 -6 18 0 15 3 0 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 0 1 2 9 10 3 7 12 1 0 LAND (KM) 1771 1825 1879 1929 1979 2127 2152 2190 2256 2354 2414 2418 2455 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.8 18.8 20.1 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.1 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 34.5 35.0 35.5 35.9 37.2 38.5 39.6 40.4 40.7 40.4 40.4 40.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 8 9 11 11 12 13 14 11 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -5. -9. -7. -7. -8. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/26/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/26/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)