* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/26/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 105 103 97 93 86 76 64 55 40 27 V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 105 103 97 93 86 76 64 55 40 27 V (KT) LGE mod 110 108 105 102 99 94 90 84 75 63 50 38 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 2 8 6 10 7 9 15 27 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 7 6 7 6 2 9 10 17 10 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 198 282 6 345 23 41 67 157 217 220 239 258 290 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.6 25.9 24.8 23.5 22.5 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 145 143 138 133 128 121 110 97 86 76 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -50.5 -50.9 -50.0 -50.2 -49.3 -49.3 -49.1 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 44 46 50 46 48 49 47 48 43 40 44 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 28 25 26 27 26 27 27 25 23 26 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 39 55 50 50 58 63 87 81 78 63 52 55 37 200 MB DIV -17 -1 -58 -19 11 26 13 49 28 38 20 31 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -4 -1 0 0 3 6 12 3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 734 762 798 837 880 920 872 785 675 550 440 350 295 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.7 23.5 24.9 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.5 114.2 114.9 115.5 116.4 116.7 116.8 116.6 116.5 116.4 116.7 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 14 18 25 25 10 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -27. -34. -41. -48. -55. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -4. -5. -3. -6. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -17. -24. -34. -46. -55. -70. -83. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/26/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/26/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##