* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/26/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 48 54 62 66 69 72 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 48 54 62 66 69 72 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 39 44 49 55 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 12 15 7 15 8 13 5 9 4 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -2 -2 0 0 1 -4 0 0 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 222 193 225 231 217 251 249 264 265 278 335 268 214 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 141 141 140 140 139 140 139 137 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 126 126 125 124 123 122 124 125 123 119 119 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 53 54 58 61 62 62 58 58 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 14 17 18 23 24 24 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -36 -34 -27 -16 -6 13 27 28 22 20 -1 5 200 MB DIV 47 50 26 8 23 21 33 13 24 12 31 26 47 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 1 -1 1 1 3 4 6 8 2 LAND (KM) 667 626 585 546 509 451 418 413 436 504 619 822 1084 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.7 21.7 23.2 25.2 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 59.4 59.8 60.2 60.6 61.0 61.6 62.0 62.2 62.4 62.5 62.8 62.6 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 7 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 60 60 59 58 58 56 56 55 51 49 42 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 23. 29. 37. 41. 44. 47. 50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/26/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/26/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/26/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)