* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/26/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 48 47 44 42 41 41 38 33 33 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 48 47 44 42 41 41 38 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 48 45 43 41 41 40 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 19 18 19 15 18 14 21 30 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 3 2 0 5 5 6 7 9 4 1 SHEAR DIR 281 270 256 244 234 238 243 279 292 309 304 304 295 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 123 122 121 121 120 121 119 117 117 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 115 114 112 111 112 109 108 104 102 101 100 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 58 57 55 51 49 52 52 50 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 14 14 12 15 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -14 -15 -19 -20 -21 -40 -51 -54 -45 -51 -58 -51 200 MB DIV 42 44 45 36 27 26 2 -8 1 -10 18 -5 0 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 1 3 13 4 9 11 10 5 9 LAND (KM) 1793 1846 1901 1957 2014 2131 2201 2269 2356 2352 2303 2258 2225 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 18.1 19.3 20.8 22.4 23.6 24.5 25.2 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 34.7 35.2 35.7 36.2 37.2 38.4 39.3 39.8 39.8 39.3 38.8 38.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 11 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -12. -17. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/26/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/26/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)