* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/26/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 113 111 108 95 88 76 66 53 44 28 17 V (KT) LAND 115 115 113 111 108 95 88 76 66 53 44 28 17 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 111 107 102 93 87 78 68 56 44 34 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 4 6 8 7 8 17 24 21 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 12 7 10 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 266 291 347 46 26 1 115 215 242 225 235 262 292 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.3 25.3 24.3 23.0 22.0 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 143 141 136 132 125 115 105 91 81 71 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -51.5 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 45 46 45 47 51 46 49 43 41 41 43 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 25 25 26 26 23 25 23 23 22 24 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 48 40 38 45 50 60 67 71 59 55 54 30 19 200 MB DIV -8 -84 -40 17 47 -19 14 43 27 24 36 4 -12 700-850 TADV 2 1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -5 4 14 5 3 -2 2 LAND (KM) 794 832 873 900 930 920 849 749 625 512 408 302 248 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.9 22.4 24.1 25.6 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.3 115.0 115.6 116.1 116.6 116.8 116.8 116.7 116.6 116.5 116.8 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 4 6 6 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 29 18 18 12 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -14. -23. -31. -40. -48. -56. -63. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -2. -5. -5. -6. -4. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -20. -27. -39. -49. -62. -71. -87. -98. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/26/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/26/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##