* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/27/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 51 58 65 67 71 75 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 51 58 65 67 71 75 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 38 43 51 60 67 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 10 13 11 15 4 1 7 3 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 2 -3 -3 -4 -1 -1 1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 220 212 223 217 204 236 233 325 194 342 242 232 205 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 140 139 140 139 140 137 132 131 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 125 125 125 123 124 123 124 123 118 118 129 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 49 52 54 56 57 63 61 63 64 65 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 11 14 18 19 21 18 19 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -40 -30 -23 -18 -14 11 8 13 5 -2 1 18 200 MB DIV 36 23 15 22 13 6 35 24 12 21 44 57 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 -1 1 0 0 5 3 8 15 15 LAND (KM) 669 624 580 546 514 465 444 445 500 601 798 1071 1422 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.4 22.4 23.7 25.6 28.0 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 59.4 59.9 60.3 60.7 61.1 61.8 62.3 63.0 63.6 64.4 64.8 64.2 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 7 8 10 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 60 58 56 55 54 51 50 51 52 42 21 16 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 7. 8. 6. 6. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 26. 33. 40. 42. 46. 50. 52. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)