* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/27/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 40 36 36 33 33 36 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 40 36 36 33 33 36 35 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 41 40 38 36 34 33 34 34 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 20 22 22 21 20 16 13 18 21 22 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 2 -1 0 0 3 7 7 6 0 8 SHEAR DIR 258 237 234 233 239 237 237 232 269 260 244 269 235 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 123 122 122 121 120 119 120 119 117 118 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 114 113 112 111 109 107 105 103 100 101 102 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 62 57 57 56 55 49 51 52 47 39 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 14 16 13 14 13 12 16 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -13 -17 -17 -8 -22 -42 -40 -37 -36 -31 -31 -32 200 MB DIV 37 40 37 29 21 19 -1 18 3 -8 19 -3 28 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 0 4 7 8 4 7 13 15 16 LAND (KM) 1835 1885 1935 1998 2062 2166 2250 2299 2375 2372 2342 2343 2386 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.8 20.1 21.4 22.6 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.1 35.5 36.1 36.6 37.6 38.7 39.6 40.0 40.0 39.7 39.7 40.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 7 5 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 9 10 9 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -9. -9. -12. -12. -9. -10. -10. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/27/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/27/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)