* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/27/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 37 34 33 34 36 36 36 35 38 V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 37 34 33 34 36 36 36 35 38 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 39 38 36 34 33 34 35 35 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 24 24 24 18 15 8 9 19 28 28 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 -5 -2 5 6 11 10 2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 252 239 245 252 248 235 232 276 284 287 265 268 230 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 123 122 122 121 121 122 121 122 121 120 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 113 113 114 112 110 109 107 107 104 103 103 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 -54.6 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 58 59 56 55 52 52 52 49 46 47 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 14 15 13 12 13 13 14 14 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -18 -21 -14 -15 -33 -35 -40 -30 -33 -31 -43 -37 200 MB DIV 33 35 24 9 14 11 16 10 -1 20 13 -11 3 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 1 9 5 7 5 9 7 18 15 LAND (KM) 1868 1913 1958 2036 2114 2128 2174 2223 2290 2366 2450 2487 2481 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.6 20.0 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.2 24.7 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 35.3 35.7 36.4 37.1 38.6 39.7 40.5 41.0 41.3 41.3 41.5 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 5 5 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 9 11 11 12 14 15 14 12 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. -9. -10. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/27/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/27/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)