* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/27/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 96 90 86 76 69 57 46 33 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 100 96 90 86 76 69 57 46 33 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 99 93 88 82 73 65 57 49 40 32 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 12 7 7 10 3 20 24 25 29 24 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 10 11 12 12 12 5 1 9 5 3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 202 214 237 258 224 258 204 242 216 241 237 255 251 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.1 25.1 24.3 23.4 22.6 21.8 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 137 135 132 123 112 104 95 86 78 69 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -50.9 -50.2 -50.3 -49.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 42 51 52 51 51 53 49 46 41 43 39 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 24 23 24 20 24 22 22 21 20 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 41 44 38 36 42 46 70 59 59 59 40 33 22 200 MB DIV -42 2 -27 -41 -7 22 55 38 41 7 24 2 0 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -2 4 6 6 6 2 1 -6 LAND (KM) 892 921 952 947 944 870 738 640 565 514 410 333 290 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.3 19.7 21.0 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.7 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.9 116.4 116.7 116.9 117.0 116.9 117.0 117.0 117.1 117.1 117.4 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 5 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 11 10 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -20. -29. -37. -45. -52. -58. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -12. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -15. -19. -29. -36. -48. -59. -72. -85. -98.-109. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/27/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/27/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##