* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/27/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 45 50 57 62 61 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 45 50 57 62 61 64 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 37 43 48 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 15 14 18 11 6 12 12 14 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 0 -2 -3 0 -2 1 2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 209 201 221 237 245 232 299 289 325 259 279 269 276 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.4 28.1 27.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 140 141 139 140 139 134 130 141 139 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 124 125 127 126 126 125 121 119 128 126 112 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 50 53 56 56 59 58 55 61 63 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 17 16 19 21 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -18 -12 -20 -17 1 -2 1 -14 -31 -49 -13 -18 200 MB DIV 34 37 15 -15 -8 7 10 26 20 32 49 52 65 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 8 8 11 16 23 39 40 LAND (KM) 654 643 633 619 606 584 568 607 715 958 1310 1210 970 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 9 10 14 18 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 62 62 62 61 59 52 43 43 29 18 20 7 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 4. 7. 8. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 20. 25. 32. 37. 36. 39. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)