* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/27/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 39 37 36 36 37 37 35 32 34 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 39 37 36 36 37 37 35 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 41 38 36 36 36 38 37 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 26 26 20 16 11 10 14 21 26 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -1 -2 1 4 6 9 8 3 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 241 245 250 251 247 239 277 301 302 286 289 269 289 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 123 124 122 121 121 120 121 120 120 122 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 114 116 114 111 109 108 107 104 104 106 107 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 55 53 53 54 56 48 44 45 43 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -17 -10 -13 -13 -32 -39 -45 -53 -48 -59 -50 -40 200 MB DIV 36 21 11 0 23 -11 -11 24 -9 0 -1 14 -13 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 4 11 8 15 14 21 20 7 0 LAND (KM) 1889 1938 1988 2071 2119 2114 2180 2234 2293 2349 2405 2420 2423 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.6 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 35.6 36.0 36.8 37.5 38.8 39.5 40.2 40.8 41.1 41.1 41.7 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 10 11 11 12 13 15 14 13 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -10. -13. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/27/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/27/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/27/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)