* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/27/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 92 89 83 77 63 52 41 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 96 92 89 83 77 63 52 41 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 95 90 85 81 72 64 55 46 37 29 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 3 7 15 20 25 22 28 28 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 8 11 14 10 3 2 6 10 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 205 297 229 299 280 199 240 230 247 252 267 278 265 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.3 25.5 24.5 23.6 22.6 21.7 21.0 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 134 133 125 117 106 97 86 77 70 63 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -50.9 -50.1 -50.9 -50.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 50 55 57 51 48 46 43 39 36 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 25 25 22 24 20 20 20 18 19 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 33 45 34 60 35 37 40 29 22 6 -1 200 MB DIV -19 -25 -25 4 -8 65 31 36 21 15 -8 -13 11 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 3 -1 0 3 6 4 4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 945 963 982 966 940 844 739 645 596 514 437 384 373 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.4 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.5 22.7 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.6 117.0 117.2 117.4 117.6 117.5 117.5 117.7 117.9 118.2 118.5 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -20. -28. -37. -45. -52. -58. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -7. -7. -8. -10. -9. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -17. -23. -37. -47. -59. -73. -83. -94.-104. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/27/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/27/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##