* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/27/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 55 60 67 70 75 76 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 55 60 67 70 75 76 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 40 46 53 60 66 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 10 10 14 5 8 6 1 3 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 2 0 -1 -1 -3 4 6 2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 164 197 219 223 246 266 315 279 37 200 95 233 209 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 146 146 145 144 143 141 140 136 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 129 131 132 131 131 130 128 125 120 114 111 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 50 52 52 55 60 61 60 59 56 53 54 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 14 15 21 20 22 20 22 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -1 -7 -3 15 26 25 21 11 -6 -5 -78 -86 200 MB DIV 44 30 1 -16 -4 23 29 21 26 5 29 11 10 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 0 1 0 4 5 1 5 4 5 4 LAND (KM) 577 552 527 507 486 427 369 328 376 500 631 788 931 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.7 18.4 19.4 20.9 22.4 23.8 25.3 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.3 60.6 60.8 61.0 61.2 61.7 62.2 62.8 63.4 63.6 63.8 63.8 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 3 5 7 8 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 70 70 71 72 59 56 52 59 56 53 38 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 6. 8. 6. 7. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 30. 35. 42. 45. 50. 51. 55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)