* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/27/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 86 81 75 64 52 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 91 86 81 75 64 52 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 90 85 81 76 67 57 48 38 30 24 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 13 14 10 22 28 30 30 30 26 25 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 3 1 9 1 4 4 3 4 3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 222 244 228 209 246 235 248 262 263 266 276 258 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 25.8 24.9 23.8 22.7 21.8 21.5 21.0 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 131 128 120 111 99 87 77 74 70 64 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -51.8 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 52 52 51 47 42 45 41 37 35 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 24 23 22 20 21 21 18 17 19 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 43 39 46 37 50 43 38 39 45 22 24 9 20 200 MB DIV -22 -22 -3 3 44 30 88 47 3 -14 8 -3 -10 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 0 -4 1 6 4 4 2 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 981 986 983 942 903 808 717 634 559 490 453 393 344 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.6 20.8 22.3 23.6 24.7 25.3 26.3 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.2 117.5 117.6 117.7 117.8 117.8 117.9 118.2 118.5 118.6 118.6 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 6 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -20. -28. -37. -45. -52. -57. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -10. -11. -10. -12. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -31. -43. -54. -69. -81. -89.-100.-111. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/27/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/27/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##