* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/28/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 42 48 53 53 51 49 48 51 53 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 42 48 53 53 51 49 48 51 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 38 39 39 39 40 40 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 20 15 21 23 24 27 25 37 29 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -4 0 -6 15 SHEAR DIR 218 250 264 262 254 273 237 286 286 291 291 262 212 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 28.0 28.2 27.2 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 139 140 140 138 134 132 138 142 131 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 127 124 125 127 126 120 117 122 129 120 92 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 5 2 700-500 MB RH 50 49 52 54 54 52 49 50 54 61 68 54 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 15 18 18 16 17 16 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -12 -9 3 11 5 7 -18 -26 -34 10 38 60 200 MB DIV 26 4 -7 3 21 34 37 -2 15 43 56 79 78 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 5 2 2 7 13 3 14 7 -27 -51 LAND (KM) 654 628 603 593 585 606 676 816 983 1225 1398 1039 647 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.7 22.6 24.6 26.5 28.8 31.5 35.6 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 59.8 60.0 60.2 60.3 60.5 61.1 61.6 61.9 61.7 60.7 59.0 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 8 10 10 10 13 18 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 64 63 62 59 56 49 33 29 21 24 22 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 5. 3. 4. 3. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 18. 24. 23. 21. 19. 18. 21. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)