* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/28/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 29 29 31 32 33 32 33 37 38 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 29 29 31 32 33 32 33 37 38 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 30 29 27 26 26 27 28 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 22 18 18 11 9 19 23 25 24 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 2 2 5 7 0 7 7 10 0 1 SHEAR DIR 247 239 231 229 230 248 235 309 295 284 263 289 319 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 124 123 123 123 123 124 124 126 129 132 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 116 115 114 113 112 110 110 110 114 117 120 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 59 56 51 50 48 48 46 46 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 15 12 14 15 14 15 14 15 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -6 -7 -11 -21 -21 -40 -42 -53 -47 -53 -56 200 MB DIV 4 19 28 39 14 0 23 -13 10 10 22 -8 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -3 4 8 9 7 24 18 19 21 18 13 6 LAND (KM) 2050 2043 2018 2014 2016 2054 2112 2162 2212 2239 2209 2082 1948 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.0 19.4 20.8 21.9 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.8 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.3 38.0 38.8 39.5 40.7 41.7 42.6 43.3 44.2 45.3 46.8 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 15 17 18 21 21 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. 2. 3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/28/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/28/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/28/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)