* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/28/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 81 77 72 58 45 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 86 81 77 72 58 45 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 80 75 71 61 51 42 33 26 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 9 11 14 12 24 24 29 32 34 32 33 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 8 1 2 4 5 4 -1 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 276 232 226 236 216 236 249 257 271 274 277 273 257 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.3 24.3 23.4 22.5 21.8 21.3 21.0 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 128 125 122 114 104 94 85 77 72 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 42 42 46 51 53 52 48 45 41 38 35 33 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 21 22 21 18 17 17 15 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 46 43 48 27 29 19 12 -1 5 -2 -12 200 MB DIV -22 7 8 5 13 38 11 23 -15 -27 -14 -11 -25 700-850 TADV 3 1 -3 0 0 4 5 5 9 3 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 987 964 943 907 872 784 705 657 588 512 441 430 443 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.0 20.1 21.5 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.1 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.7 117.9 118.0 118.0 118.0 118.2 118.4 118.6 118.7 118.7 118.9 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 5 5 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -20. -28. -37. -44. -50. -55. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -32. -45. -57. -70. -82. -94.-104.-114. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/28/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/28/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##